← Final Cut TCG Store Championship PTM Season
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Final Cut TCG Store Championship PTM Season
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.1% | +18.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.9% | +4.7 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Boots | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Floodward Sergeant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |